The national tracking poll on the generic congressional race shows some shifts since last week's results, including a somewhat wider Democratic margin in the generic U.S. House race. Plus, voters reveal which agenda —  the GOP's under President Trump or the Democrats' under House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — is the least appealing.

Contact: Emily Gersema, (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu; or Ron Mackovich, (213) 740-6156 or ronald.mackovich@usc.edu

The latest results from the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll indicate a slight increase in likely voters who plan to vote for a Democratic candidate for their local U.S. House race, and a slight decrease in voters backing Republicans. The results also reveal that many voters are disenchanted with both parties' agendas. 

The tracking poll will be updated again on Monday, Nov. 5, the day before the midterm election.

The tracking poll is a probability survey based on a panel of respondents who participate in the Understanding America Study by USC Dornsife's Center for Economic and Social Research. The tracking poll includes results from questions on the generic congressional race, repeated weekly, as well as other topics, such as which agenda respondents dislike more: the Trump agenda for the GOP or Pelosi's agenda for the Democrats.  

[Graphics by Dennis Lan, USC Dornsife]

As of Oct. 27, just 27 percent of the likely voters participating in the poll had completed early ballots while 73 percent had yet to vote.

The above results on early voting have a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

In the question above, the 19 percent of voters who disliked both agenda but thought each were a feasible outcome of the election were asked to choose which agenda that they would least like to see happen. (Note: These choices are a composite based on GOP and Democratic campaign messages.):

• "Republicans keep a majority in Congress, and enact Donald Trump's conservative agenda of Medicare and Medicaid cuts, and they will end affordable health insurance access for people with pre-existing conditions."
• "Democrats win a majority in Congress and enact a liberal Nancy Pelosi agenda of higher taxes, greatly increased government spending and larger defense budget cuts."

Trump's is the least preferred of the two, based on the poll, but only slightly so and well within the margin of error, +/- 5 percentage points.

In 2016, the "hold your nose" voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton ultimately chose Trump. This year, though, these voters — the 1 in 5 who dislike both the Trump and Pelosi agendas — are a different group comprised mainly of independents, who break for Democrats by 59 percent to 34 percent.

Robert Shrum, director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future that co-sponsors the poll, noted that several Republican candidates across the country have attacked Pelosi in campaign ads while also trying to reassure voters about Democratic charges that Republicans would end federal protections that require health insurance coverage for pre-existing conditions.

Based on the poll's responses, "I don’t think they’re getting traction on either tactic," Shrum said.

Voters are also not shifting much on the question of whether Trump is a motivating factor for them to vote in the midterm elections. The figures above are similar to last week's poll results. 

The poll surveyed residents about the generic congressional race, whether they approve of President Donald Trump and whether they prefer a  Democratic agenda under House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) vs. a Republican agenda under Trump. Both agendas were composites created from various statements made in recent campaign ads. Additional information about the poll is here.

A total of 4,711 adult residents consented to participate in a series of three USC Dornsife/LA Times polls prior to the midterm elections, Of those, 3,922 participated in this latest round of the tracking poll, including 2,350 likely voters. The respondents are U.S. residents and members of USC Dornsife's Center for Economic and Social Research’s Understanding America Study, a probability-based internet panel. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points for all respondents and for likely voters.

The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is a partnership of The Los Angeles Times and two institutions of the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences: the Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research. For more information about the Center for Economic and Social Research Understanding America Study internet panel, visit https://uasdata.usc.edu

The following experts at USC Dornsife who lead the poll are available for interviews upon request:

• Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future
• Michael Murphy, co-director of the Center for the Political Future
• Jill Darling, survey director of the Center for Economic and Social Research

To arrange an interview with experts about the poll, please contact Emily Gersema, (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu

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