New poll of Californians reveals Trump’s approval rating remains low and opposition to the president’s policies is driving Democratic votes

Contact: Jim Key, (213) 821-2992 or jameskey@usc.edu; or Ron Mackovich (213) 740-6156 or rmackovi@usc.edu

Three weeks before Californians elect a new governor, Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom holds a commanding 23-point lead over Republican challenger John Cox, 54-31 with 15 percent still making up their mind, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll conducted online September 17 – October 14.

More than 7 of 10 likely voters say the issue of “jobs and economic development” is extremely important in deciding who they’ll vote for as governor. It’s one of the few points of agreement among supporters of each gubernatorial candidate.

The top three issues ranked by supporters of Cox are: fiscal issues such as taxes and state spending, jobs and economic development, and illegal immigration.  For supporters of Newsom, the top three issues are: healthcare, education and the environment, closely followed by jobs/economy.

Among Californians, Trump’s approval rating remains low, and largely unchanged, since the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll in May 2018. Two-thirds of Californians say they disapprove of the job the president’s doing. But Republicans remain solidly behind the president, 78% of whom approve of his job performance.

Disapproval of the president’s policies is influencing votes in the election for California governor, according to the poll. Two-thirds of likely voters who said the gubernatorial candidates’ positions of support or opposition to Trump’s policies is a major driver of their vote are backing Gavin Newsom.

The poll also measured opinions regarding the candidates for the U.S. Senate, propositions 6 (gas tax) and 10 (rent control), President Donald Trump, and the housing crisis. Those findings will be released in the coming days.

The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll was conducted online, in English and Spanish, and surveyed 1,180 eligible voters in California, including 980 registered voters and 794 likely general election voters. All participants are members of the Center for Economic and Social Research’s Understanding America Study, a probability-based internet panel. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points for all eligible and +/- 4 for registered and for likely voters.

The survey, results and methodology are available here.

The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is a partnership of The Los Angeles Times and two institutions of the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences: the Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research. For more information about the Center for Economic and Social Research Understanding America Study internet panel, visit: https://uasdata.usc.edu

Interview opportunities
The following experts at USC Dornsife who lead the poll are available for interviews upon request:
• Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future
•Michael Murphy, co-director of the Center for the Political Future
• Jill Darling, survey director of the Center for Economic and Social Research

To arrange an interview with experts about the poll, please contact Jim Key at (213) 821-2992 or jameskey@usc.edu

[Graphics by Dennis Lam, USC Dornsife]